State of Innovation

Patents and Innovation Economics

Economics as it Should Be

I gave a talk at Atlas Summit on ‘Economics, Evolution, and Rand’s Meta-Ethics’ and one person asked me how my ideas would alter economics.  In my talks and in my book Source of Economic Growth, I suggest that economics needs to be rethought from the ground up based on my findings.  Here are some of the ways economics needs to be changed in order to make it a science.econgrowth.small

 

1) Fundamental Questions of Economics

No school of economics is even asking the right questions.  I have written another post on point (Intellectual Capitalism: Part 1), so I will not repeat all of it here.

Every science is defined by the questions it asks.  According to a sampling of websites three of the major questions economics asks are:

1) What goods will be produced?

2) How will the goods be produced?

3) For whom are the goods produced?

All of these questions are inherently collectivist and in a truly capitalist country (i.e., one that protects Natural Rights) all of these questions lead to very boring answers.  In addition, none of these questions are scientific questions (Just another example of how economics is not a science).

The single most important question in economics is:

What is the source of real per capita increases in wealth?

This immediately leads to the second most important question in economics today which is: What caused the Industrial Revolution?  Both of these questions have empirical and objective answers.

The answer to the first question is inventions and this leads to a number of other important questions, such as how do we measure the rate of technological change?, what things influence the rate of technological change?, why does Singapore appear to have a faster growth rate than Hong Kong despite a lower economic freedom index?, are inventions subject to diminishing returns?, etc.

 

2) Definition of Economics

Since economics is asking the wrong questions, the definition of economics is incorrect.  Here is my suggested definition of economics vs. standard definitions.  Note that I have a whole chapter on this subject in my book Source of Economic Growth.

Standard Definitions

Economics is a science which studies human behavior as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternative uses.

The science that deals with the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services, or the material welfare of humankind.

 

My Definition

Economics is the study of how man obtains those things he needs to live.

 

3) Cause and Effect in Economics

Classical, Neo-Classical, and Austrian economics emphasize manufacturing and trade, while Keynesian economics emphasizes consumption as the driver of economics and all of them are wrong.  The chain of cause and effect in economics is shown in the chart below.

EconomicCauseEffect

When man applies his reason to the problems of survival he invents.  Production, which is really about reproduction or replication, is not the driver in economics as the questions from mainstream economics imply.  Trade is also not the driver and in fact the Manufacturing and Trade steps are not absolutely necessary.  Keynesian economics focuses on consumption, so it is on the far wrong side of the cause and effect chain.

Because Classical, Neo-Classical, and Austrian economics emphasizes the effects instead of the causes in economics they waste an huge amount of time on supply and demand curves.  Every supply and demand curve should come with two caveats: 1) demand does not create supply and 2) this chart assumes a technologically stagnant world.  If demand could create supply then Keynesians would be right.  What a supply and demand chart shows is how much people would be willing to sell of their present stock at various prices, it does not show that anyone will produce anything.

 

4) Economics is not a Social Science its Foundations are in Biology and Evolution

Economics is not a social science, it is a real science based on the biological facts of human existence.  Specifically that humans have to obtain a certain number of calories (calories here substitute well for all our needs, including oxygen, water, etc.) per day or we die.  This gives us a physical definition of profit and loss.  Modern economics treats the whole subject as if it was merely a game.  Venezuela, North Korea, China, and the USSR prove that it is not.

For more information see Economics, Evolution, and Rand’s Meta-Ethics (Intellectual Capitalism: Fundamentals Part 2)

The fact that profit and loss have real physical definitions means that economics is a real empirical science.  Neoclassical economics pretends to be an empirical science but too often they create mathematical models in which none of the variables are measurable.  That is not science.

 

5) Perfect Competition

Perfect competition is an inherently flawed concept that has no place in economics.  All conclusions based on perfect competition are wrong, including the whole monopoly power and anti-trust analysis.  Perfect competition should be laid to rest and only discussed as a historical example of how absurd economics once was.  I have a large section analyzing perfect competition in my book Source of Economic Growth.

Competition is not the source of our wealth.  One of the narratives of economics is that competition drives down profit margins and that is how we become wealthy.  This is left over from the nonsense of perfect competition.  While it is true that we do not want the government to setup rules that provide an advantage for one market participate over another and that these rules hurt the economy, it does not follow that competition creates wealth.  The wealthiest countries in the world are those in which a larger percentage of people create unique products and services that have little or no direct competition.  The goal is for everyone to be producing unique high value items, not 300 million or even 100 million people all producing me too products.

 

6) Property Rights/Ethics

There has been a movement to eliminate ethics from economics and this runs through all schools of economics.  The justification for this is that science is devoid of ethical considerations.  This is not true and the best example of what happens when scientists divorce themselves of ethics is Anthropomorphic Global Warming.  All science has an ethics that at least includes the rules of: 1) you must report the data accurately, and 2) you must follow the data to its logical conclusions.  Some sciences such as medicine have additional ethical constraints.  In medicine it is not ethical for the doctor to give the patient poison or prescribe poison just to see what happens or undertake surgery just to see how the human body reacts.  Similarly, economics must not prescribe economic poison.  Economics is ethically constrained to policies that promote life.

This attempt by economics to divorce itself from ethics not only means that economics defaults to a utilitarian based ethics, it also means that economists have no idea what property rights are.  Property rights cannot be justified on utilitarian grounds.  The utilitarian benefits of ‘property rights’ are the effect not the cause.  Because of this confusion economists will go around saying that taxing medallions are property rights or FCC licenses or slavery in the South.  It also means that when they combine their flawed ideas on ‘property rights’ with the nonsense of perfect competition they start talking about true property rights as giving monopoly power.  This leads to all sorts of nonsense including the idea that patents and copyrights are monopolies.

Property rights are based in ethics and cannot be divorced from ethics.  Property rights are the recognition that someone created something of value.  When economics attempts to redefine property rights, it commits both a scientific error and an ethical error.  The scientific error is the result of ignoring definitions and reality.  Words have meaning and when economists say property rights are any legally enforceable control over an object it is like a biologist saying a mammal is any warm blooded animal (birds are warm blooded).  The definition of a mammal is based in reality and is not arbitrary and the definition of property rights are based in reality.  Ignoring reality is not science.

Ethically when economists attempt to redefine property rights they are advocating fraud or theft, by advocating that a creator’s creation be taken from him and given to someone else without the creator’s consent.

It is a sad fact that most economists have no idea what property rights are, however they are in good company.  Lawyers, free market advocates, and even Objectivists do not have a firm grounding in what property rights are or how they come about.  Historically, the study of property rights peaked around the time of the Homestead Act of 1862 and was dead when Hoover said the airwaves belong to the public.

Adam Mossoff is one of the few academics trying to advance the theoretical foundations of property rights.  Studying the nature of property rights is part of economics and is completely neglected by all modern schools of economics.

 

7) Regulation and Opportunity Costs (An Application)

Regulation is usually analyzed on its effectiveness and based on its opportunity costs.  For instance, if we mandate that all cars have airbags, this means that the cost of all cars will increase but the cars will be safer.  This means that people will put off buying newer. safer cars and when they do buy a new car they will likely be forced to buy a smaller car that is less safe.

Another example is that if we force houses to meet building codes, builders will have to spend more time complying with these rules and will not be able to make certain tradeoffs.  The supposed advantage is safety, but the opportunity costs is that housing is more expensive which means consumers have to drive cars that are not as safe or eat food of lower quality or have fewer children or spend less on education.

This analysis is flawed, because the largest opportunity cost of regulation is the lost inventions.  The main justification for regulations is safety.  However, because regulations such building codes and the FDA lock us into a technological stagnant (or retarded) market, in the long run we are less safe and these regulated product cost more.  In the case of the FDA I am sure that what minor benefits we obtain in safety are wiped out within a year or two by the lost technological advances.  However there have been no empirical studies on point to my knowledge.  In fact, studies looking at this issue would be excellent research project in economics.

 

8) Immigration (An Application)

Does immigration lower wages or not?  Economists argue both side of this argument and point to differing empirical evidence to support their positions.  The reason for this confusion is that economists do not understand that inventions are the source of real per capita increases in wealth.  I will show how my system of economics resolves this debate and why there appears to be conflicting empirical data.

We will start with the simplest case first.  If we have a country where the overwhelming majority of people are living in the Malthusian Trap (i.e., the edge of starvation, subsistence living) then if more people move into that country people’s wages will not go down, but people will starve to death.[1]  With this information let’s examine the two extreme cases: a technologically stagnant country and a technologically dynamic country.  In a technologically stagnant country the total GDP is flat to declining slowly.  If immigrants increase the population of this country they will not and cannot increase its GDP, so real per capita incomes will decrease and therefore wages will decline.  This is similar to the country in the Malthusian Trap.

When a country is technologically dynamic then its real per capita GDP is increasing.  Immigrants in this case can contribute to the country’s increasing level of technology and therefore the wealth of the country.  In that case each new person that is open to using their mind is an asset and only makes the country wealthier.  A pretty good measure of how technologically dynamic a country is its economic freedom index.

No countries on Earth today are fully optimized to increase their level of technology and only a few are absolutely technologically stagnant.  Some of the more technologically dynamic  countries

include Singapore and Honk Kong.  As Peter Thiel has pointed out the rate that the U.S. creates new technologies outside the information technology area has slowed significantly.  Countries that are close to being technologically stagnant include Venezuela and North Korea and many African countries

Since economists do not control for how technologically dynamic the economy (or part of the economy) was that they used in their studies of whether immigrants increase or decrease wages, it is not surprising they got differing results even if they did everything else right in their studies.

 

Conclusion

My proposed school of economics, Intellectual Capitalism, is profoundly different than Neo-Classical, Austrian, Keynesian or any other school of economics.

 

For more on Intellectual Capitalism see:

My Book Source of Economic Growth

These Articles:

Intellectual Capitalism: Philosophy

Intellectual Capitalism: Fundamentals Part 1

Economics, Evolution, and Rand’s Meta-Ethics (Intellectual Capitalism: Fundamentals Part 2)

Talk:

The Source of Economic Growth

[1] Note this assumes that this country is technologically stagnant, which is likely if most people are living in the Malthusian Trap.  s

July 25, 2016 Posted by | -Economics, bioeconomics, Intellectual Capitalism, News | , | 1 Comment

Conflating Inventions (Technological Progress) with Capital in Economics

Will Thomas and I gave a talk on Austrian Economics at Atlas Summit 2016, where I pointed out that Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) does not fit the empirical facts.  ABCT claims that increasing savings/capital are the cause of economic growth, which is very similar to what classical and neo-classical economics states.  I pointed out that in fact it is increasing levels of technology (inventions) that are the cause of economic growth not increases in capital.  One of the questioners after the talk stated that inventions (technology) are part of capital.

Many people want to conflate increasing levels of technology with capital, however they are not the same.  Capital as used in economics means those durable goods used in production.

In economics, capital goods, real capital, or capital assets are already-produced durable goods or any non-financial asset that is used in production of goods or services.

Adam Smith defines capital as “That part of a man’s stock which he expects to afford him revenue”.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_(economics)

The article goes on to explain how to determine if something as capital.

Classical and neoclassical economics regard capital as one of the factors of production (alongside the other factors: land and labour).

This is what makes it a factor of production:

  • The good is not used up immediately in the process of production unlike raw materials or intermediate goods. (The significant exception to this is depreciation allowance, which like intermediate goods, is treated as a business expense.)

  • The good can be produced or increased (in contrast to land and non-renewable resources). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_(economics)

Technological change is not a good, it is the process of inventing.  It is true that when these new inventions are reproduced (manufacturing) then AtlasSocietywhen purchased they become capital, but that is several steps removed.  If we treat technological change as just part of capital then going out and purchasing capital goods is the same thing as inventing.  However, the results are not the same.  Purchasing (acquiring) capital without invention results in no real per capita increases in wealth over the long run.  As a simple example assume that every farmer in the U.S. has the latest most up to date tractor their land can use.  Adding more tractors (capital) does not increase the output of these farms.  The same is true for capital in general.

A number of economists have pointed out that increasing levels of capital are not responsible for the tremendous economic growth experienced in the West since the Industrial Revolution.  Among these economists are Robert Solow, Paul Romer, and Deirdre McCloskey.  They all point to increasing levels of technology as the cause for our increased wealth.  Our standard of living is defined by our level of technology.

On the other hand inventing at a faster rate does produce real per capita increases in wealth.  Inventions can produce returns that are staggering.  For instance, Eli Whitney’s invention of the cotton gin allowed a forty times increase in the output of cotton in the U.S. in one decade.

In science it is important to isolate the factors effecting an experiment.  For instance, if you conflate wind resistance and gravity then you end up with the nonsense that heavier objects fall faster than lighter objects.  This means you will never be able to create a parachute or an airplane.

In economics if we conflate inventions with capital, we make the mistake that third world countries will become wealthy if we provide them capital.  In fact, this is exactly what Development Economics has said for years despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.  Conflating these two concepts will cause us to ignore the role of property rights for invention as being the biggest long term driver of wealth and instead focus on capital gains taxes or increasing the savings rate or increasing comsumption.

Inventions are the cause of real per capita increases in wealth, not capital.  Conflating the two is illogical and results in nonsensical economic policies.

 

July 22, 2016 Posted by | Innovation, News, Patents | , , , , , | 2 Comments

Austrian Economics and Objectivism Panel Session

Will Thomas and I gave a talk at Atlas Summit 2016 on Austrian Economics.  The talk focused on epistemological and ethical positions of Carl Menger, Ludwig Von Mises, and F.A. Hayek.  A number of people asked for the slides and related materials.  Below I provide links to nine posts on blog that investigate some of the issues discussed in the talk in more detail.  Below that are the slides from the talk.

 

Articles

Is Carl Menger a Socialist?  https://hallingblog.com/2016/06/25/is-carl-menger-a-socialist/

 

Why Austrian Economics Subjectivity is Wrong and Condemns Economics to Being a Pseudo-Science   https://hallingblog.com/2016/06/13/why-austrian-economics-subjectivity-is-wrong-and-condemns-economics-to-being-a-pseudo-science/

 

Can “Dignity” Explain the Industrial Revolution: A Review of Deirdre McCloskey’s Economic Ideas  https://hallingblog.com/2016/05/22/can-dignity-explain-the-industrial-revolution-a-review-of-deirdre-mccloskeys-economic-ideas/

 

Carl Menger: Austrian Economics vs. Objectivism  https://hallingblog.com/2016/03/21/carl-menger-austrian-economics-vs-objectivism/

 

Carl Menger: Principles of Economics  https://hallingblog.com/2015/11/16/carl-menger-principles-of-economics/

 

Capital in Disequilibrium: The Austrians’ Answer to New Growth Theory  https://hallingblog.com/2015/09/09/capital-in-disequilibrium-the-austrians-answer-to-new-growth-theory/

 

Praxeology: An Intellectual Train Wreck  https://hallingblog.com/2015/09/08/praxeology-an-intellectual-train-wreck/

 

Hayek: Friend or Foe of Reason, Liberty and Capitalism?  https://hallingblog.com/2015/03/04/hayek-friend-or-foe-of-reason-liberty-and-capitalism/

 

The Austrian Business Cycle Debunked  https://hallingblog.com/2015/02/15/the-austrian-business-cycle-debunked/

 

The Irrational Foundations of Austrian Economics  https://hallingblog.com/2015/02/12/the-irrational-foundations-of-austrian-economics/

 

 

Slides

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end

 

 

 

July 21, 2016 Posted by | -Economics, philosophy, Uncategorized | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Another Anti-Patent Myth Debunked: The Selden Automobile Patent

There is a myth by the anti-patent crowd that “overly broad” patents inhibit the development of new technologies.  One of the classic examples they like to cite is the Selden Patent (US Pat. No. 549,160), which supposedly inhibited the development of the automobile around the turn of the century.  A new paper ‘The “Overly-broad” Selden patent, Henry Ford and Development in the Early US Automobile Industry’ By John Howells and Ron D. Katznelson, shows that in fact the automotive industry prospered and inventiveness accelerated despite the Selden patent.

According to the paper:

First, neither the ALAM-adopted restrictive licensing policy based on the Selden patent, nor the public liability threats to purchasers of unlicensed vehicles (see sections 2.2.3-2.2.4) restricted entry into the automobile industry as shown by Figure 1.

Second, measures of automobile development show it to have been most rapid during the Selden patent term; Raff and Trajtenberg’s analysis of real, quality adjusted prices for the American Automobile Industry show that the fastest rate of price decline for a given automobile quality occurred between 1906 and 1911, within the term of the Selden patent prior to its 1911 adjudication: the rate of quality improvement was greatest in the 1906 – 1911 period and more than half of the quality gain for a given price observed to have occurred by 1980, had been attained in the period 1906 – 1911 (Raff and Trajtenberg 1996, p85, 91).

Third, rather than Ford being slowed down through patent litigation with the ALAM, from the foundation of the Ford Motor Company in 1903, Ford grew sales at an exponential rate faster than that of the total industry during the period of litigation. A serial developer of five major automobile models, which gained tenfold increase in sales every four years, can hardly be considered to have been “stifled.” The Ford Motor Company became the leading manufacturer of automobiles produced in 1906, a position the company retained until 1927; see Figure 2.

econgrowth.smallThe paper provides overwhelming evidence that the Selden patent did not inhibit the automotive industry or the development of new technologies in the automotive industry.  This should have been apparent to anyone familiar with the history of the automotive industry.  The United States led the world in developing and manufacturing automobiles at the turn of the century and beyond.  Selden had a U.S. patent and it was enforced in the U.S., so the facts do not square with the anti-patent narrative.

Another interesting part of the paper is that Ford knew that they would prevail in a lawsuit over the Selden patent.  This is the value of well-defined laws and courts who stick to the law.

Selden’s patent was issued by the US Patent Office in 1895 and eventually was assigned to the Association of Licensed Automobile Manufacturers (ALAM) in early 1903. The ALAM publicly asserted that the Selden patent claims should be broadly construed, meaning that the entire automobile industry was within their scope. In October 1903 suit was brought against the Ford Motor Company under the Selden patent and when finally adjudicated on appeal in 1911 the Ford Motor Company was found not to infringe because although the patent was held valid, it was construed narrowly to cover an improvement to the obsolete Brayton engine. This was the embodiment with which Selden had experimented prior to 1879, the year he applied for a patent. Columbia Motor Co. v. CA Duerr and Co. 184 F. 893, 896 (2nd Cir. 1911). The narrow Brayton-based construction saved Selden’s claims, but they were not infringed since all gasoline engines in commercial use were Otto engines by 1911, rendering the patent economically worthless

Another anti-patent lie bites the dust.  When a group or a movement consistently lies and promotes lies to support their position over and over again, as the anti-patent crowd has done, they should not be taken seriously by rational people.

July 11, 2016 Posted by | -Economics, -Law, Innovation, Patents | , , , , | Leave a comment