Basics of Heat Transfer: Understanding the Physics of Global Warming
The temperature on Earth is a heat transfer problem. This post will outline the basics physics involved. First of all you have to determine the sources of heat for Earth. The main source of heat for the Earth is the Sun (S). Much smaller sources of heating on Earth are the thermal heat from geothermal sources and stellar radiation. Geothermal energy has been decreasing over the life of the Earth and presently is likely too small to have any significant effect on temperatures. Stellar radiation probably varies over huge cycles as the Solar System orbits the Milky Way, but is still small compared to the Sun.
The next question is whether S varies as a function of time. The answer is yes. For instance, sun spots cause variations in S. Unfortunately, our physics does not allow us to model S(t). At best we only have a vague idea based on historical evidence and what we know about other similar stars. However, no one with certainty can say that the Sun’s output will not change radically the next year. We have data on the Sun’s output that at best goes back with any accuracy 800 years. Eight hundred years is not statistically significant compared to the 5 billion years of Earth and statistical modeling would still just be a guess. We know similar stars eventually expand to several times the Sun’s present size and its output changes radically. In addition, the amount of Solar radiation reaching Earth varies based on the variation in Earth’s orbit Milankovitch cycles. These can be predicted and show a strong connection with Ice Ages, although all the mechanisms are not known.
Some of the solar radiation that hits Earth’s atmosphere is absorbed and some is reflected. In addition, the Earth radiates some of its energy into space. The amount of solar radiation that is reflected varies over time based on the different spectrum of light hitting the Earth and based on changes in the Earth’s magnetic field and clouds. These variations are not well known and cannot be accurately modeled. The amount of solar radiation that is absorbed necessarily varies also. Things that affect the amount of absorption include clouds, greenhouse gases, absorption by the surface of the Earth and changes in Earth’s magnetic field. Of the greenhouse gases, water vapor makes up up 95% of the greenhouse gas effect – almost all water vapor in the atmosphere occurs naturally. CO2 represents about 3.6% of the greenhouse effect gases. However, only 0.117% of this is man-made. All man-made greenhouse gases consist of only 2.8% of the total. The whole theory of AGW (Anthropomorphic Global Warming) is based on this single factor.
Our model does not include the radiation of heat from the Earth, let’s call it E. All bodies radiate heat. Roughly the amount of heat radiated from Earth will be equal to the surface area of the atmosphere. However, the surface area of the Earth will vary based on the temperature and solar wind. PV=nRT. As the temperature rises the Volume and Pressure will increase. No one can accurately model this radiative cooling. In addition, there will be cooling because of the loss of matter.
So far we have the energy part of the equation. In order to convert this into a temperature on Earth we have to the specific heat of air, land – including the different geographic regions, and water. While it would be possible to determine some sort of average with some accuracy, this will not suffice because the air and water will move based on localized heating. This will cause variations in the surface temperature and the atmospheric temperatures, which would be difficult to relate back to the model and vice versa. No one can provide a good model for this term.
So what we have is an equation for the temperature on Earth T(t) which is the product of the Energy absorbed times the specific heat. The energy absorbed is a function of the energy hitting Earth, which includes the S – Sun output, stellar radiation and geothermal energy. We do not have an accurate model of the Sun’s output. We do not know if it will suddenly increase or decrease. The best we know is what has happened in the recent past. We do not know or have good model for the amount of energy that is absorbed. We do not know or have good model of the amount of energy emitted from Earth and we do not have a good handle on the specific heat or how to relate it to observed temperatures. Despite all this ignorance, we are to believe that the effect of man-made greenhouse can be accurately predicted. This is not science, it is guessing. To pretend we can predict average global temperatures within a tenth of a degree is absurd – it is debatable whether we can measure them with that sort of accuracy.)
Failures of AGW models:
1) They do not explain Ice Ages or subsequent warming periods. (I welcome comments, but if you support AGW you must provide a model that shows why ice ages occur or it will be deleted – I am not going to waste my time going down rabbit holes.)
2) CO2 levels generally rise after the Earth has warmed not vice versa. The likely reason for this is that the oceans hold enormous amounts of dissolved CO2. When the temperature of the oceans increase they release CO2.
3) No rational explanation is given for why AGW models focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gases, while ignoring the problems in their model.
4) The last 15 years have proven that AGW models are just plain wrong – but the excuse is we need more time. However, they were selective in their time periods in the first place. There was significant cooling in from 1965 to 1980, but they ignored this data and called anyone who pointed this out part of the Flat Earth Society.
5) There was significant warming from 1900-1940, but this is not correlated to increases in man-made CO2 and AGW models do not explain this.
6) The Japanese (IBUKU) satellite show that Industrial Countries actually are net carbon sinks.
7) The shows that AGW is a religion, it is not a science.
Supporters of AGW Lie, fudge data, or just make up data.
1) The 1st UN IPCC summary lied about what the scientists on the panel had said.
2) They lied about the temperature data in Climate Gate ignoring the Little Ice Age.
3) They claim that the number of polar bears is decreasing, this is just not true.
4) They claim the oceans are rising – this is not true.
5) They claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet is melting at an alarming rate – this is not true
6) They claim that the number of major weather events has increased – the evidence shows the exact opposite.
This list is almost endless, but I will stop here.
Supporters of AGW exaggerate the problems of a warmer Earth and ignore the Benefits
1) During the 5 billion years Earth has been around it has been in an Ice Age the majority of the time. Only during the recent warming periods have human civilizations thrived.
2) The North Pole could melt completely and the Earth’s Oceans would not be one millimeter higher.
3) A warmer Earth will produce more crops and reduce weather related deaths.
Supporters of AGW hate Humans
AGW supporters are the same environmentalists that will tell you there are too many people on Earth. Their solution to every problem is fewer human beings. There have been several very inexpensive solutions proposed on how to deal with Global Warming if it were true. The environmentalists were not interested in technological solutions, because are anti-technology, anti-human and EVIL.
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